Bitcoin has successfully stormed back above the psychological $70,000 threshold this weekend, marking a decisive reversal from early February’s bearish volatility. The premier cryptocurrency’s resurgence was ignited by a double-barreled catalyst: a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report showing CPI dropping to 2.4%, and a groundbreaking legislative proposal from Brazil to establish a massive sovereign Bitcoin reserve targeting the acquisition of 1 million BTC.

Bitcoin Reclaims $70,000 Amid Cooling U.S. Inflation

The crypto markets breathed a collective sigh of relief on Friday, February 13, 2026, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 2.4% year-over-year, coming in slightly under the 2.5% forecast and down from the previous month’s 2.7%. This "Goldilocks" reading—not too hot, not too cold—immediately softened the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and sent risk assets flying.

By Sunday, February 15, Bitcoin had solidified its gains, trading firmly around $70,215 after bouncing from a local bottom near $60,000 earlier in the month. The soft inflation print has recalibrated market expectations for the Federal Reserve, with traders on prediction markets like Kalshi now pricing in a 23% higher probability of an April interest rate cut. Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and drive capital toward finite assets like Bitcoin.

Institutional Reaction to the Rally

The macro optimism spilled over into crypto-equities as well. Coinbase (COIN) surged 18% and MicroStrategy (MSTR) jumped 10% to close the week, signaling that institutional appetite is returning with force. Analysts at K33 Research suggested that the dip to $60,000 likely marked a "capitulation event," flushing out weak hands and setting the stage for this new leg up.

Brazil's "RESBit" Proposal: A 1 Million BTC Bombshell

While the U.S. CPI data provided the fuel, a legislative bombshell from Brazil provided the spark. Lawmakers in Brasilia have reintroduced and expanded Bill No. 4,501 of 2024, aiming to create a Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve (RESBit). The audacious plan, authored by Federal Deputy Eros Biondini and supported by Deputy Luiz Gastão, outlines a framework for the South American giant to gradually acquire up to 1 million Bitcoin over a five-year period.

If passed, this initiative would position Brazil as a global superpower in the digital asset space, potentially rivaling the holdings of the United States and China. The proposal includes:

  • A 1 Million BTC Target: A gradual accumulation plan to hold roughly 5% of the total Bitcoin supply.
  • Sovereign Hedging: Using BTC to diversify Brazil's international reserves and hedge against fiat currency volatility.
  • Strict Custody Rules: Mandating the use of cold storage and multi-signature wallets, with high-transparency auditing requirements.
  • Funding Cap: Limiting the initial allocation to 5% of Brazil’s existing international reserves to maintain fiscal responsibility.

The mere existence of such a bill has electrified the global crypto community. "When a G20 nation discusses buying 5% of the Bitcoin supply, the game theory implications for other central banks become impossible to ignore," noted a senior analyst at a major digital asset fund.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Despite the bullish weekend price action, Bitcoin is not entirely out of the woods. Technical analysis for mid-February 2026 suggests that BTC is currently testing a critical decision zone. The reclaim of $70,000 is significant, but the asset faces formidable resistance overhead.

Resistance Levels: The immediate hurdle lies between $72,000 and $72,500. A clean four-hour close above this band would confirm a breakout from the recent consolidation channel, opening the door for a run toward $75,000 and the psychological $80,000 barrier.

Support Levels: On the downside, the $65,000 level has established itself as a robust floor. However, the structural pivot remains at $60,000; a loss of this level would invalidate the current bullish thesis and could signal a return to a deeper bear trend.

Market Sentiment Indicators

Interestingly, despite the price recovery, sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is slowly climbing out of "Extreme Fear" territory (scoring an 8 last week), suggesting that the market is far from overheated. Historically, rallies that begin during periods of extreme fear tend to have more staying power than those fueled by euphoria.

The Road Ahead: What to Watch This Week

As we move further into February 2026, traders will be laser-focused on two fronts. First, the Federal Reserve's response to the 2.4% CPI data will be critical—any hawkish rhetoric could dampen the party. Second, developments in the Brazilian Congress regarding the RESBit bill will be scrutinized. Even if the bill faces hurdles, the fact that it is being debated at the legislative level legitimizes Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset in a way few other events could.

For now, Bitcoin bulls are back in the driver's seat. With inflation cooling and sovereign states eyeing the corn, the path of least resistance appears to be higher.