Hype and anticipation have continued to build ever since the markets reversal in January. For the last six months Litecoin has outperformed almost all other crypto assets in the space, more than sextupling in value from its lows of around ~$22 up to $140 at its recent peak. Despite this momentous rise however, prices show little sign of pulling back just yet, so is this time any different from 2015?
The last Litecoin halving took place on August 25th 2015 at block 840,000, this time it’s expected 20 days earlier on August 5th at block 1,680,000 due to increased network hash-rate that has slowly sped up the clock between difficulty readjustments.
Comparatively speaking, if history is anything to go by, we should have already seen an unhealthy vertical spike in price as people FOMO in to capitalise on the event, yet this hasn’t happened. The price has certainly pulled back hard against Bitcoin, sitting at around 0.0108 but has remained steady in dollar terms. It would appear then Litecoin’s next move has become more closely tied to that of Bitcoin as it has been rising and dipping along with it.
Having broken back above the break down resistance from 2018 and support with the setup trend line and diagonal rising trend line all at $100 it looks like there is strong support to prevent prices falling below and back into double digits. Pair this with increasing trading volumes, Positive CMF, MACD, RSI and the weekly moving averages (3,7,30) now all trending back up and in the right order, the overall case looks bullish going forward with any short term pullback being temporary.
However, it may be wise to show caution as the last halving saw prices collapse -75%. A similar event would see panic selling back down below all these supports to ~$35. Although the market conditions this time around are much more mature and the ecosystem is in a much more active, bullish market, trending up not down/sideways. Market makers looking to capitalise by shorting may then be disappointed especially if Bitcoin continues to climb higher as the halving approaches.