The 2024 US Presidential election between Trump and Harris is pretty near, and the crypto space has been speculating about how a potential Trump victory might influence the digital asset landscape. With the former president's growing crypto-friendly stance, investors and analysts are eyeing the potential of a significant market surge.
Let's take a close look at what the experts are saying and how the crypto market might respond to a Trump win in November.
Bitcoin and the Trump Effect
Wall Street is taking notice of what some are calling the latest "Trump trade." According to analysts at Bernstein, if Donald Trump clinches the presidency, Bitcoin could soar to an eye-watering $90,000 by year's end. That's a bold prediction—a whopping 59% jump from current levels.
Why such optimism, though? Well, it all boils down to Trump's evolving stance on cryptocurrency. Once a skeptic, Trump has done a total 180, now championing the cause of making the United States what he calls "the crypto capital of the planet." His recent 45-minute speech at the Bitcoin Conference and subsequent pro-crypto rhetoric have signaled a potential change in regulatory approach.
Gautam Chhugani, a Bernstein analyst, puts it bluntly: "Crypto is the rare instance where the difference in election outcome could determine the destiny of the industry." From all indications, there are high stakes of the upcoming vote for crypto enthusiasts and investors alike.
Regulatory Tailwinds
One of the key factors driving the bullish outlook is the prospect of a more favorable regulatory environment under a Trump administration. Current regulatory challenges have kept many financial institutions and banks on the sidelines, hesitant to fully embrace blockchain-based financial products.
A Trump victory, however, could potentially usher in a new era of crypto-friendly policies, including:
- Appointing a pro-crypto SEC chair
- Creating a national strategic Bitcoin stockpile
- Establishing a crypto advisory council to the President
All of these could remove the policy risks that have been holding back institutional participation, paving the way for an influx of new investments and innovations in the crypto space.
Young Voters and Crypto Policy
It's not just Wall Street taking notice. The 2024 US Presidential election is looking like it would be a watershed moment for crypto policy, largely due to the growing influence of younger voters. Gen Z and Millennials, who make up a significant portion of the electorate, are increasingly factoring candidates' crypto stances into their voting decisions.
A survey made by Stand With Crypto Alliance revealed that over half of these younger voters are likely to support candidates advocating for crypto-friendly policies. In swing states, a notable 21% of voters consider crypto policies important, with many identifying as pro-crypto. This shift in demographic forces candidates across the political spectrum to address digital assets more directly, recognizing their importance to a key segment of the electorate.
Boom or Bust?
While a Trump victory is predicted to send Bitcoin soaring, the flip side of the coin presents a more cautious scenario. Under a Harris administration, some analysts forecast a potential decline, with Bitcoin possibly testing the $30,000 to $40,000 range. The contrast proves just how pivotal the nature of this election would be for the crypto market's future trajectory.
However, it's worth noting that Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, surging 112% over the past year despite regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds. This suggests that regardless of the election outcome, the long-term outlook for crypto remains strong, pumped by increasing mainstream acceptance and institutional interest.
As we approach November, the crypto market will likely remain on edge. For investors and enthusiasts alike, the 2024 US Presidential election will be a defining moment in the ongoing crypto revolution. Will we see a "Trump bump" or a more measured ascent? Only time will tell now.